Program Overview

Numerical Weather Forecast Models

The Numerical Weather Forecast Models course is designed to provide students with a comprehensive understanding of how forecast models are constructed and the various steps involved in weather forecasting. The course explores the difference between regular weather forecasts and seasonal forecasts, where ocean dynamics play a crucial role.

Course Description

Weather forecasting is based on complex numerical models that simulate the evolution of the atmosphere and ocean forward in time using powerful computers. Detailed weather forecasts are made up to two weeks ahead, while less detailed seasonal forecasts provide valuable information several months ahead in some parts of the world. The simulation model solves the equations of motion for the atmosphere and the ocean numerically, with small-scale processes described by sub-grid parameterizations. The initial condition for the simulations is obtained by data assimilation, combining the numerical model, recent observations, and the previous forecast to obtain the best estimate of the present state.

Course Structure

Lectures cover the following topics:

• Predictability and forecast verification
• Forecast model structure
• Sub-grid parameterizations
• Observational data for assimilation
• Techniques for data assimilation: optimal interpolation, 3- and 4-dimensional variational assimilation, ensemble Kalman filter
• Reanalysis
• Ensemble prediction
• Seasonal prediction

There are two computer labs:

• The first lab applies 4-D variational assimilation to the 3-dimensional Lorenz model.
• The second lab uses the OpenIFS model from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) to forecast a real storm that hit Western Europe, tweaking a number of parameters of the model.

Teaching Format

The course consists of lectures, exercises, and computer labs.

Assessment

The examination is done through the written reports of both labs and an oral presentation of the lab with OpenIFS.

Course Details

• Course Code: MO8006
• Level: Master's level
• Language: English
• Eligibility: Knowledge corresponding to Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, 7.5 HECs (MO8009), Mesoscale Meteorology, 7.5 HECs (MO8005), and Numerical Methods in Meteorology and Oceanography, 7.5 HECs (MO8007). Also required is knowledge equivalent to English B.
• Selection: No selection.
• Tuition Fee: Applies to citizens from outside EU, EEA, or Switzerland. First installment: 17,500 SEK. The complete course: 17,500 SEK.
• Subject: Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climate Physics
• Area of Interest: Science and Mathematics
• Department Responsible for Education: Department of Meteorology

Schedule

The schedule will be available no later than one month before the start of the course.

Course Literature