Foresight and Horizon-Scanning in Policymaking

Program Overview

Foresight and Horizon-Scanning in Policymaking

Course Overview

All public policy involves, either implicitly or explicitly, assumptions of or visions about the future. The field of Foresight comprises all techniques used to better inform and make more “future proof” public policy, strategy and decision-making at key junctures. Foresight has long been indispensable in policy fields that require long-term financial commitments in areas such as defence procurement, pension systems, energy generation, and environmental protection. It is also being used increasingly to anticipate or imagine socio-political developments in an era marked by major surprises in domestic, international and transnational politics, ranging from the 2008 Financial Crisis to the Russian annexation of Crimea, and the rapid rise of ISIS/D’aesh.

Course Features

• The module is aimed at officials with an interest in policy planning, strategy, forward-studies and horizon-scanning on socio-political and foreign policy issues where uncertainty tends to be higher.
• It also offers more widely applicable lessons about the limits and potential of expert knowledge within the policy-process.
• Introduces participants to probabilistic forecasting and scenario building as key approaches in the broader field of Foresight.

Course Content

Week 1: How and why does foresight matter to policymaking?

The overarching question for this week is how and why does foresight matter to decision-makers in government? The ultimate aim of foresight is to make policy-making and government as a whole more “foresighted” and more “future-proof”, making it more likely that harm is avoided and opportunities are realised.

Week 2: Challenges of forecasting

In this second week we will focus on the challenges of probabilistic forecasting in governments, whether near or longer term. We will look at different forms of probabilistic forecasting, introduce and explain key terminology such as uncertainty.

Week 3: Building a competent scenario

In the final week we turn to scenario work—looking at alternative futures as an approach to foresight. We will examine how it different from probabilistic forecasting or indeed prediction, even though it may draw on some aspects of it.

Learning Outcomes

Upon completion of this module, students will:

• Have increased accuracy and relevance on their own analytical judgments about policy-relevant futures, and be able to communicate this knowledge to others.
• Understand and employ core tools to commission foresight and horizon-scanning exercises with internal or external experts.

Entry Requirements

This short course is for mid-career professionals. Standard entry requirements are a 2:1 degree plus 3 years of relevant work experience. Applicants without a 2:1 or higher degree are welcome to apply and typically require 5+ years of relevant work experience.

Assessment

• One written assignment
• Participation in webinars and discussion forums

Further Information

• Format: Taught fully online, comprising of self-directed online study, and including 3 x 1hr live webinars, plus an optional induction webinar in the week before the start of teaching and an optional assessment webinar in Week 4.
• There is a single assessment at the end of the course in which the student applies understanding of foresight and horizon-scanning in policymaking to their own area of policy responsibility.
• Tuition fees may be subject to additional increases in subsequent years of study, in line with King’s terms and conditions.

Key Information

• Credit level: 7
• Credit value: 5
• Duration: 4 weeks
• Fees: £1,200.00

Who Will I Be Taught By

• Professor Christoph Meyer, Professor of European & International Politics
• Dr Olga Siemers, Associate Professor in Public Policy