Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics

This module addresses the ongoing paradigm shift in evaluation of forensic evidence away from methods based on human perception and subjective judgement to methods based on relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models.

Course Overview

There is an ongoing paradigm shift in evaluation of forensic evidence away from methods based on human perception and subjective judgement to methods based on relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models; methods that are transparent and reproducible, use the logically correct framework for interpretation of forensic evidence (the likelihood-ratio framework), are resistant to cognitive bias, and are calibrated and validated under casework conditions. The paradigm shift is spreading across different branches of forensic science, and there is a need for more forensic practitioners and lawyers to have a working knowledge of the concepts of forensic inference and statistics. This continuing-professional-development (CPD) module will provide you with a conceptual understanding of forensic inference and statistics, including an understanding of the likelihood-ratio framework for interpretation of forensic evidence. The focus of the module is on understanding of concepts rather than practical implementation skills. No prior knowledge of statistics is assumed.

Module Learning Outcomes

On successful completion of this module, you will:

• Understand how to perform source-level forensic evaluation via quantitative implementation of the likelihood-ratio framework.
• Understand how to empirically calibrate and validate forensic-evaluation systems.
• Understand what cognitive bias is and be familiar with strategies for reducing its potential impact.
• Be familiar with the requirements and recommendations of standards and guidelines related to evaluation of forensic evidence, and with legal admissibility of forensic evidence.

Module Content

• Logical reasoning for evaluation of forensic evidence
• Concepts of statistical modelling for evaluation of forensic evidence
• Empirical calibration and validation of forensic-evaluation systems
• Cognitive bias in evaluation of forensic evidence
• Standards and guidelines related to evaluation of forensic evidence
• Legal admissibility of forensic evidence from a scientific perspective
• Examples from multiple branches of forensic science

Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences Approved

This CPD course is approved by the Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences and counts for 150 points in their CPD Scheme.

Testimonials from Previous Students

Various testimonials from previous students highlight the effectiveness and enjoyment of the course, praising the instructor's patience, thoroughness, and the well-structured delivery of the content.

How You Will Learn

The module is delivered entirely online. Learning resources are provided via the Blackboard Ultra virtual learning environment, and via the Universitys library. You can take the module from anywhere in the world as long as you have a good internet connection. The module includes regular interactive seminars and tutorials. As necessary, seminars and tutorials will be scheduled to accommodate participants in different time zones.

Assessment

Assessment is via two online tests that have the same format as each units online didactic quiz. This is designed to encourage you to exploit the learning opportunities provided by the didactic quizzes, and in turn to exploit the learning opportunities provided by the pre-class watching and reading questions and by the in-class activities.

Key Information

• Credit value: 15 credits (7.5 ECTS credits)
• Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences CPD points: 150
• Specific level: Master's
• Mode of delivery: Online learning
• Course type: Standalone module
• Applications: All applications are made online using our online application form.
• Provisional delivery dates: Access to online learning resources from 1 September 2026, or after your enrolment is complete, whichever is latest.
• Application deadline: 31 August 2026

Meet Your Module Director

The module is prepared and delivered by Prof Geoffrey Stewart Morrison. Prof Morrison is a forensic practitioner and a leading researcher in the field of forensic inference and statistics.

Entry Requirements

• You will need: Undergraduate degree pass
• The module is organized to facilitate participation by individuals who already work in forensic science or law, but this is not a requirement.
• International students should be outside the UK or already in the UK with a valid visa.
• English Language requirements: The module is taught in English. For applicants whose first language is not English, evidence of English-language proficiency is not required, but applicants should have sufficient English-language proficiency to understand readings and lectures, and to actively participate in discussions.

Fees

• UK and International students (2026/2027): GBP 2,200

Frequently Asked Questions

• What are the differences between Astons Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics and Lausannes Essentials of Forensic Interpretation?
• Can you schedule seminars and tutorials at a convenient time for people in my time zone?
• Is Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics suitable for lawyers and judges?
• Does Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics cover the statistical models used in probabilistic genotypic systems such as STRmixｮ or TrueAlleleｮ?
• Does Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics cover automatic approaches to forensic voice comparison?
• Will I receive a certificate?
• Can I pay in instalments?
• Is financial aid available?

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